Wednesday, December 17, 2008

NEW GOLD AND GOLD SHARES BUY SIGNAL, 86% probability down S&P tomorrow

WEEKLY $GOLD,$HUI,$XAU,RGLD, GIVE BUY SIGNALS. Negative is crude oil delationary and $INDU has not bettered November high. I remain 95% in T bills except for my small trading acount. I am accumulating data for probability forecast for next day broad market direction. Also as noted below a number of medical, personal and professional distractions during this holiday Season. I chair the patient safety committee at my hospital and operate 3 days a week and see patients 5 half days a week. My very early Parkinsons disease is in excellent control but I plan to move to a clinic only practice soon.
I have been busy with family and work--I still take ENT surgery call every other night thru the week and every third weekend. Tomorrow I travel to Horseshoe Bay for holidays and grandson #2 is scheduled for delivery Friday (grandchild #5).
I look for a sell off of the broad market to elevate the VIX and then a good rally over several months--of course this rally may have already started. Until inflation is firmly established via home prices stable, oil and gold prices rising I will remain in the safety of treasuries. I will trade some gold options both long and short--I prefer RGLD as a trading vehicle. My UBB most recent trade is blowing up.

Would my readers please comment --some have complained that the charts are too difficult for them

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