Friday, November 30, 2007


Gold/XAU Ratio 4.58
This weekend I hope to review my buy sell signals for gold stocks. Gold futures are down almost $42 this week.

Canadian gold stocks poor inflation hedge this year.


Thursday, November 29, 2007

Gold futures end lower -- dollar gains--IBD confirms markets in Rally Mode

"I would be wary of being bearish on the dollar,'' O'Neill told academics and students at the University of Oxford late yesterday. ``I personally think that a year from today the dollar will be quite a bit stronger.''

O'Neill also said he is optimistic that a narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit will help revive the dollar's allure in coming months. He also said that models used by the investment bank analyzing media reports suggest pessimism about the dollar among market participants is close to a peak.

"Investors should hold short positions for gold on expectations that concerns about credit-market losses tied to U.S. subprime-mortgages will subside,"

Gold may decline 15 to 20 percent next year, O'Neill said in an interview from London today.

``We think gold's gone a long, long way and we think it's due for a 15 to 20 percent move down,'' he said in an interview.

$gold high pole warning
xau bearish
Hui bullish

I still think gold is headed lower in the short term and gold stocks will finish a correction over the next several weeks.

The broad markets reversed yesterday after a confirmation up day (IBD follow thru day). I think this is a tradeable rally into the end of the year but the recent Dow Theory bear market signals makes me think the broad market will make new lows during the first 6 months of '08.

This weekend I plan to review the trading signals I use for gold stock trades.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Broad Markets Rally--$Gold declines

Note fibonacci retracement of DJIA

Confused about Broad Market Direction? IBD states market in correction mode

Note high pole warning $gold chart--move to sidelines--more correction on its way???

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

$HUI declines broad markets rally

Broad markets rally--look for follow thru day.

"Trading is hard work. It requires discipline, patience, flexibility, an open mind, and a commitment to learning every day."
Michael Parness "Rule the Freakin Markets"

Note P&F divergence for $XAU and $HUI--I think gold stocks are headed lower and that this correction will follow gold price toward 750 to shake out the late longs--I am willing only to trade the long side of this gold stock bull--if the correction does not materialize I will buy on a breakout of HUI to new highs if the broad markets confirm--I am 98% cash--I risk only 2% of my portfolio on any one trade. Money management, discipline and courage are the hallmarks of good traders.

My blogging has taken a back seat while on vacation. Now I am back from Thanksgiving break at Horseshoe Bay Texas--had to buy an otoscope at Wallgreens for my youngest (11 months) grandaughter--indeed she had acute otitis media (middle ear infection). I am licenced in Arkansa, Texas and Arizona. I still practice medicine full time--operate 5 or 6 cases 4 days a week and on some office days see almost 50 patients.
I want universal health coverage even though I usually vote Republican. I like Mike Huckabee--did a fund raiser in my home for him for Governor before he was elected to his first term.
If you know any younger ENT's who want to work we have only 3 ENT's working in our Fort Smith Arkansas area with a medical service area of over 300,000. I still take night call every other night thru the week and every third weekend.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Dow Theory Signals Bear Market

Today the D-J Industrial Average closed below its August 16 low of 12845.78 confirming the previous Trans low.
Will gold stocks sell off again in a liquidity crisis???

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Peak Gold Removed From Watch List

Peak Gold removed from my watch list. If you are curious as to why?--email me.

Broad Market remains in correction mode--see IBD Big Picture for details. A new market direction will be marked by a follow thru day (FTD) "FTD" is a surge in both price and volume four to seven days after the start of a rally attempt.

I still look for more correction in gold stocks--if further weakness in broad market develops I think gold stocks will sell off as investors raise cash.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

HUI correction--How deep will it be?

Profit taking for 63%, 179 point rally in $HUI since August 16th, 2007

I am looking for a good entry point for a basket of gold and silver stocks.
Watch the broad market and the Japanese Yen for clues. Will the turn date be November 15th?

Monday, November 12, 2007

Sunday, November 11, 2007


A new gold stock for my watch List--experienced management

Peak Gold Ltd
Symbol PIK
Shares Issued 725,791,396
Close 2007-11-09 C$ 0.61
Recent Sedar Documents

Peak Gold not acquiring proposed producing gold mines

2007-11-12 05:57 ET - News Release

Ms. Melanie Hennessey reports


Peak Gold Ltd. has been in discussions regarding a potential acquisition of producing gold mines, but the discussions have now terminated as the vendor has decided not to sell the assets given the current strong price of gold. As a result of this development, those persons who were going to participate in the proposed offering of special warrants, announced in Stockwatch on Oct. 30, 2007, and as per the amended terms announced on Nov. 6, 2007, will be contacted by the agents early this week to reconfirm their orders.

A further news release will be issued by Peak Gold providing a financing update after all of the prospective purchasers have been contacted.

"The situation in the markets at the moment is not “textbook” though. In our opinion, we are entering turbulent times with a real estate crash coming to the USA and other western countries such as Britain. We are also bearish on the stock market, with the exception of certain commodities, and we see a severe recession coming, perhaps even a depression to rival the 1930’s. Therefore the “textbook” trading strategies that usually work 90% of the time, are not necessarily going to work for the next few years as we are entering a financial climate that has only occurred a few times in the last century. In other words it may be a case of “all bets are off” as the markets move deeper into financial turmoil. The only real “safe bet” we can see is gold, silver and the associated precious metal stocks."

Saturday, November 10, 2007


Notice than whenever the 9 week RSI dipped below the 20-level it marked at least a short-term bottom for the dollar. November 15 is my time-price projected turn date.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Broad Market and Gold Stocks Correct

Is MER the canary in the mine shaft?

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Near Market Turning Point?


Gold/XAU Ratio 4.43

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

New Highs for Gold and Silver

Today I bought 100,000 shares of Terrane Metals Corp TRX.V

My other penny stocks include ADGD, CA:VMI, and Bactech Mining Corp

Gold sets fresh high on inflation fears, weak dollar, safe-haven buying

Note Fibonacci levels. Gold/XAU Ratio 4.26

Monday, November 5, 2007

Gold Bull Continues

One of my pennny stocks Vault Minerals Ca:VMI +0.14 +33% had a nice move today.

"I want an one armed economist so that the guy could never make a statement and then say, 'on the other hand'." Harry Truman

Thursday, November 1, 2007