Thursday, December 3, 2009

Watch Goldman Sachs Group, Inc

Is GS showing signs of a market correction? Our new canary replacing Merrill Lynch.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

EA Approval for Terrane Metals

Terrane Metals Corp.: Mt. Milligan Gets EA Approval From Government of Canada

Sunday, November 29, 2009

GDXJ Junior Gold Fund Holdings

Andean Resources Ltd (AND.TO)
Avoca Resources Ltd (AVO.AX)
Dominion Mining Ltd (DOM.AX)
Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (KCN.AX)
Medusa Mining Ltd (MML.AX)
St Barbara Ltd (SBM.AX)
Alamos Gold Inc (AGI.TO)
Aurizon Mines Ltd (ARZ.TO)
Colossus Minerals Inc (CSI.TO)
Detour Gold Corp (DGC.TO)
European Goldfields Ltd (EGU.TO)
Fronteer Development Group Inc (FRG.A)
Gabriel Resources Ltd (GBU.TO)
Gammon Gold Inc (GRS.N)
Gold Wheaton Gold Corp (GLW.V)
Golden Star Resources Ltd (GSS.A)
Great Basin Gold Ltd (GBG.TO)
Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG.TO)
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc (KGI.TO)
Lake Shore Gold Corp (LSG.TO)
Minefinders Corp Ltd (MFN.A)
New Gold Inc (NGD.TO)
Northgate Minerals Corp (NXG.A)
NovaGold Resources Inc (NG.A)
Romarco Minerals Inc (R.V)
Rubicon Minerals Corp (RMX.TO)
San Gold Corp (SGR.V)
Semafo Inc (SMF.TO)
Silver Standard Resources Inc (SSRI.O)
Silvercorp Metals Inc (SVM.TO)
Ventana Gold Corp (VEN.TO)
Lingbao Gold Co Ltd (3330.HK)
Avocet Mining PLC (AVM.L)
Real Gold Mining Ltd (0246.HK)
Allied Nevada Gold Corp (ANV.A)
Coeur d Alene Mines Corp (CDE.N)
Hecla Mining Co (HL.N)
US Gold Corp (UXG.A

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Watch China?

China's Shanghai composite, which closes before New York's open, plunged 3.4% in heavy volume. It was the Shanghai's biggest one-day drop since late August. Is this our new canary in the coal mine?
Update:ok for me to blog--will continue with usual restrictions and cautions

Thursday, November 19, 2009

I Passed My Series 65 Exam

This afternoon I passed my Registered Investment Advisor Series 65 Exam. I found it moderately difficult and if I had realize the "trickiness" of some questions I would have spent more time in preparation. But I passed!!!

I plan to open a wealth Management office in Fort Smith Arkansas with an associate, Clint Sands, in January 2010 when my licensing is complete and our business plan is up and running.

I have been advised once my registration is complete that I should quit blogging and I will respct this advice. To all my readers I thank you for your comments and God Bless.

Paul I Wills, M.D., F.A.C.S.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009




Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Broad Markets approaching a top???

Watch for signs of collapse in chinese markets FXP

IBD has issued a buy signal.


A new ETF was launched today GDXJ

Should be fun to watch.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

TRX and Gold to all time highs

PM prices continue Bull run on high volume.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Market in correction mode, TRX new highs

Continue to watch distribution days and insider selling. Nonconfirmation signal by $TRAN and dow theory. TRX breaks out to new high. I predict broad market and $INDU will test March lows.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Terrane metals up

Terrane Metals Corp. (Public, CVE:TRX) Watch this stock Find similar stocks Find more results for TRX S&P TSX Ven... 1,277.85 -0.29%
TRX 0.580 38.10%

0.580 +0.160 (38.10%)
Sep 23 - Close
CVE data delayed by 15 mins - Disclaimer Range 0.50 - 0.65 52 week 0.09 - 0.65 Open 0.50 Vol / Avg. 6.24M/0.00 Mkt cap 71.46M P/E - Div/yield - EPS -0.01 Shares 123.20M Beta 1.25

One blog site mentions 4 elephant deposits--has been granted mining permit recently.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Call for Audit of Federal Reserve Bank

Why are you not screaming for an audit of the Federal Reserve Bank?

See this link

An audit will bring to the light of day severe conflicts of interest in how appointments for the bank are determined and also shed light on the Federal Reserve’s mismanagement leading to the severe financial crisis of ’08. Both political parties are equally responsible for the financial mess we are in. This crisis has hit those of retirement age the most and is a worldwide crisis but has hit the hardest in the USA.

I am a 66 yr old retired physician with over 3.5 million in assets but I am studying to become a Registered Investment Advisor and continue to self direct and manage my own retirement funds. I was fortunate to “time the market” and stepped aside in November ’07 from the stock market impending collapse.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Market remains in correction

"Despite gains the past two days, the market remains in correction mode. That means stock purchases should be avoided until a major index triggers a follow-through day.
A follow-through involves a significant index gain in increased volume. It can't occur until the fourth day or later of an attempted rally.
An attempted rally begins with the first up day after the market goes into correction. The count continues as long as the index doesn't undercut the prior low.
The past two days of gains, therefore, constitute a rally attempt"
IBD today quote

Monday, August 17, 2009

Market Enters Correction and New Ideas for Health Care Reform

IBD shows 5 distribution days and market in correction. I will sit this one out except for precious metal stocks. I suggest you watch the Asian markets closely for signs of possible financial panic. Too many people I know have lost jobs and two income families are struggling to get by on one paycheck.

I have been advised that once I become a RIA that I should discontinue this blog.

I plan to take the test in October. I am starting to adapt to my slowing down. I am training for a 5K run and plan on opening a wealth management office soon.

Today I jogged 1 1/2 miles and walked 1 1/2 miles. My USGA handicap index has dropped to 12 and my range of motion massage in the middle the afternoon was a far cry from my usual day in the O.R. doing 10 to 12 cases and then seeing 30 patients in the office--making a trip or two to the E.R. and taking night call every other night. My wife has a sign over our garage entrance that says, "a golfer and a normal person live here."

Last week my retirement party was a wonderful celebration of my life as an ENT surgeon--all 4 of my colleagues I practiced with attended and 60 other friends including my hospital CEO (retired) who made some very kind remarks about my contribution to our hospital.

My visit to Phoenix to the Barrow's Neurological Institute was very rewarding. A change of medication and a very good report otherwise. I wake up each morning grateful for having served in a "helping profession" and grateful for new challenges and trails to explore. I am taking a lot more time watching the river birds each morning outside my Arkansas River room and boat dock. My artifical putting green and swimming pool have finally been utilized the way I had intended them to be used. I will travel to my beloved Horse Shoe Bay Texas home soon for some Texas Hill Country golf when the weather cools.

I have a simple solution for health care reform--outlaw all medical advertising including pharmaceutical ads aimed at the consumer--make all insurance portable and expand medicaid coverage to all uninsured but use private insurance and individual and group medical practitioners in a Coop fashion. For those that say this is too simple a solution I say we did it before with tobacco advertising and the savings would be much better spent providing health care for the uninsured. I am not politically naive--I helped the AAOHNS andthe ACS form their political action groups. When Clinton was in office I visited with Hilary's Reform team about "MY Arkansas Plan for Health Care Reform." I much prefer capitalism and the free enterprise system and a "SEC Type" oversight would be much preferable than a massive Federal System--look how they have screwed up Social Security and the Post Office and now we trust our Government to run all of health care? Very few knowledgeable physicians or nurses would choose an inner city government run hospital over a well run Cleveland Clinic or Mayo Clinic or MD Anderson.
Email me at if you have inovative solutions and cost savings for a "privativation of health care".

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Transports confirm Market Rally

IBD market in confirmed uptrend
Dow Theory Letters--Richard Russell turns bullish but says this is still a rally in a bear market. Transport Ave confirms current rally.

On a personal note I have retired from the practice of ENT Surgery beginning July 1, 2009. I am pursuing continuing education to become a Registered Investment Advisor and plan to take the series 65 exam.

Sunday, June 21, 2009


"If man will begin with certainies, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end with certainties."

So here are my doubts:
1. Is the U.S. economy in deflation or inflation mode?
2. Is the current stock market rally a bear market rally or the start of a new bull run.
3. What is the current yield curve predicting?

Friday, June 12, 2009

Laffer: increasing Monetary base

The percentage increase in the monetary base is the largest increase in the past 50 years by a factor of 10 (see chart nearby). It is so far outside the realm of our prior experiential base that historical comparisons are rendered difficult if not meaningless. The currency-in-circulation component of the monetary base -- which prior to the expansion had comprised 95% of the monetary base -- has risen by a little less than 10%, while bank reserves have increased almost 20-fold. Now the currency-in-circulation component of the monetary base is a smidgen less than 50% of the monetary base. Yikes!

Bank reserves are crucially important because they are the foundation upon which banks are able to expand their liabilities and thereby increase the quantity of money.

Banks are required to hold a certain fraction of their liabilities -- demand deposits and other checkable deposits -- in reserves held at the Fed or in vault cash. Prior to the huge increase in bank reserves, banks had been constrained from expanding loans by their reserve positions. They weren't able to inject liquidity into the economy, which had been so desperately needed in response to the liquidity crisis that began in 2007 and continued into 2008. But since last September, all of that has changed. Banks now have huge amounts of excess reserves, enabling them to make lots of net new loans.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

WSJ Here comes Inflation

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Monetary Base Doubled in Four Months

For half a century prior to this bear market, the US monetary base had been expanding at an average 6% rate. No more -- over recent months the monetary base has sky-rocketed at an unprecedented rate of 110%. Within four months the Fed has doubled the monetary base. Nothing like this has ever been seen before in US history.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Follow this link traders vs physician income

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Simple Strategy:When to Buy Stocks

When the S&P 500 Index is above its 45-week moving average, stocks compound at an astounding 11% annual rate. And when stocks are below it, they lose money at 6% per year.
Readers of this Blog know I remain long term bearish on the broad markets. I use IBD signals as confirmed by Dow Theory to generate buy sell signals. We remain in a bear market.
I urge any reader interested in economic cycles to read the work of Martin Armstrong (currently incarcerated)

Thursday, May 21, 2009

New Upleg for PM Stocks and Gold


Friday, May 15, 2009

Deflation and Japanese experience--asset bubbles

"Although history never exactly repeats itself, I believe there are strong similarities about what happened in Japan and what could lay ahead for the United States. Driven by years of easy credit during the 1980s, the Japanese stock and housing market became a bubble - and everything changed when the bubble burst in 1990.

"One of the first lessons learned - or relearned, actually - is that when asset bubbles burst, there is nothing you can do to re-inflate them. But that's what every U.S. government plan is still trying to do - keep housing prices from falling. In doing so, all we are really doing is wasting trillions and trillions of dollars and digging ourselves into deeper financial hole.

"Another lesson learned from the Japanese experience is that plunging asset prices do not result in typical recession. The recessions are worse - sometimes far worse."
Campbells letter

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Price direction of Gold

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Down Market Forecast for Tomorrow

NDX probaility at 70% for down market

Down Market Forecast for Tomorrow

NDX probaility at 70% for down market

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Bear Market Continues: Look for $INDU reversal tomorrow, another buy signal for gold and silver stocks


Sunday, April 19, 2009

Leading Indicators

At first, something seems impossible. Then it becomes improbable. But with enough conviction and support, it finally becomes inevitable.” Christopher Reeves

“There are no rules here – we’re trying to accomplish something.” - THOMAS EDISON

Follow this link for some surprising economic indicators

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Market Correction this Week?

Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal.
~Henry Ford

The Nasdaq has surged 31% from its March 9 low. The NYSE composite added 29% from its March 6 worst. The S&P 500 gained 28% and the Dow rose 25%.

The Market Pulse shows that a distribution day, one notched on March 20, has fallen off the count. The broad indexes have climbed enough to make that session's high-volume loss less relevant.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Is this a Bear Market Rally or New Bull Market

A week ago Richard Russell said the if the Industrials and Transports can BOTH better their last secondary peaks, this will be very bullish, and it could mean that the primary trend has turned up.

The key numbers on the upside (the last secondary peaks) are:

D-J Industrial Average 9015.10, and

D-J Transportation Average 3717.26.

These points are identified by the blue arrows on the two daily charts above.

Short term gold and gold stocks have turned bearish--I do not plan to trade out of current positions--very difficult to correctly time--I am hedged to the down side with a small position in April AUY PUTS.

I am currently evaluating a deltra neutral straddle strategy for option trading. My 2 week experience has resulted in a loss thus far. I will keep my readers posted--the strategy was advertised to generate over $130,000 in 30 days with only 30 minutes work per day in picking trades.

God Bless and good fortune with all your trades.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Stocks Explode Higher Again On Rule Change, Economic Data

UNTIL CONFIRMED BY DOW THEORY THIS IS A BEAR MARKET RALLY. Rmember I follow distribution days on IBD and use Dow theory to confirm major market trends. I believe we have entered a new bull market for gold mining and silver mining stocks. I have taken a 20% position in my retirement account.

Tomorrow look for profit taking--Gold bullion down but mining stocks continue up including SLW.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Recession severe, Great Depression no way

ARNA releases positve study but the amount of weight loss not as much as wanted by market place--stock drops by 1/3 at open today. I still think this drug will be released after Sept phase 3 study report. I bought additional July call options today.

Follow this link for gold historical performance
I remain very bullish on silver and precious metal stocks.

God Bless and wishing you all a wonderful trading day.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Gold and Silver Stocks Safe Haven? Major Market rally

I took a 20 % position in SLW, AUY, RGLD,GSS. ALS:TSX remains on my watch list as does the biotech ARNA (Phase 3 weight loss pharmaceutical product results will be released at end of month). Tomorrow I will take an additonal 2% position in ARNA.

While institutions and central banks are increasingly looking to gold’s safe haven attributes as portfolio insurance, retail investor sentiment remains lukewarm with only a minority of the investment public having any allocation to gold whatsoever and the vast majority of the mainstream media almost completely ignoring gold’s continuing outperformance of other assets and extremely strong fundamentals.

Media coverage of gold continues to be lukewarm and focuses on the fact that gold has not yet surpassed its record nominal high of $1,030/oz, which is pointed out repeatedly.

What is rarely pointed out is that gold rose in nearly all currencies in 2007, in 2008 and is up some 8% in dollar terms (more in euro and sterling and far more in other smaller currencies many of which have fallen very sharply) so far in 2009 in stark contrast to equity markets (see Performance tables below).

Disclosure: none

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Fed Rings Bell

There is an old saying on Wall Street that no ones rings the bell--however todays action by the Fed comes as close to bell ringing that I have ever heard. I look for gold to soar and the dollar to tank. Buy april call options on SLW, RGLD, Auy. I prefer just out of the money options based on the underlying stocks price. This is a turning point--The FED is running the printing presses full tilt.

Monday, March 16, 2009


Washington - America's recession "probably" will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday in a rare television interview.

In carefully hedged remarks in a taped interview with CBS' "60 Minutes," Bernanke seemed to express a bit more optimism that this could be done.

Still, Bernanke stressed - as he did to Congress last month - that the prospects for the recession ending this year and a recovery taking root next year hinge on a difficult task: getting banks to lend more freely again and getting the financial markets to work more normally.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

IBD signals market rally

Thursday marked a follow-through session for the market, on Day 5 of a rally attempt as reported by IBD. So has Dow Theory confirmed this bear market rally--or is it the start of a new bull market? Only time will tells us--I can interpret trends--I do not forecast the future. I am not smart enough. I also notice that when I take a market position my objectivity becomes clouded--I look for any evidence that supports my position and ignore the signals that are screaming at me to take my loss and regroup. Such is the life of a trader. I have been blessed by the good fortune of side stepping this vicious bear market--I moved to 90% TREASURIES IN November '07.

I plan to invest soon in this current market rally. I continue to hold a 10% position in precious metal mining stocks. I also look for a rally in the oil stocks and for the U.S. Dollar to decline markedly over the next year. Inflation should start to heat up over the next 6 to 9 months. I monitor the U.S. Dollar interst rates, TIPS, Gold and OIL. My favorite sector right now remains the silver stocks. I look for spot silver to spike as high as $50. I favor holding for 1 to 2 years--I get whipsawed every time I think I can time the precius market and gold trades. I also look for a huge rally in biotech stocks. My current favorite is ARNA.

The bear market peak for the Dow occurred in October 2007 at 14164. The recent low was recorded on March 9 at Dow 6547. This represents a total loss of 7617 points. A one-third correction would take the Dow back to about 9500. A two/thirds correction would take the Dow back to 11629. A 50% correction would take the Dow back to 10355.

Saturday, March 7, 2009


If you want to speculate on biotech weight loss drugs take a look at ARNA. 2 other biotech stocks are VVUS, and OREX. I think biotech will be next sector to watch if and when a rebound comes for the broad markets. I am keeping a watch list of gold and silver stocks and biotech stocks.


Now bullish on silver stocks: SLW, PAAS, SSRI

Gold stocks I like are: AUY, GDX, RGLD

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

GDP declined 6.2% in 4th quarter of 2008

Real gross domestic product (GDP) declined 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 after declining 0.5 percent in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The fourth-quarter growth rate was revised down 2.4 percentage points from the “advance” estimate of a 3.8 percent decline released in January.
The sources of weakness were the same as those reported in the advance estimate.

A sharp downturn in exports

A continuing decline in consumer spending

A larger reduction in business investment
• A continuing decline in housing Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, continued to decline.
Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP
2005 2006 2007 2008
Real GDP growth is measured at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
The GDP revision was large. The revision reflected new source data that showed substantially weaker inventory investment and exports than BEA had assumed for the advance estimate. The average revision (without regard to sign) between the advance and preliminary estimate is 0.5 percentage point.
Prices paid by U.S. residents fell 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter, after rising 4.5 percent in the third quarter. The decline reflected a large downturn in energy prices. Excluding energy, prices rose 1.5 percent after rising
3.3 percent.
BEA data—including GDP, personal income, the balance of payments, foreign direct investment, the input-output accounts, and economic data for states, local areas, and industries—are available on the BEA Web site: E-mail alerts are also available.
NOTE: Additional information that becomes available in the coming weeks will be incorporated in a “final” estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on March 26, 2009. An estimate of corporate profits will also be released.
Contact: Ralph Stewart or Thomas Dail (202) 606-2649 Bureau of Economic

Monday, March 2, 2009

New Market lows, Gold stocks flash sell signal

Where is the outrage. Bernacke, Frank and Dodd should resign immediately. Obama should lower taxes instead of raising them and the financial stimulus plan should send $200,000 directly as a tax rebate to each and every tax paying household. I see a one term presidency, civil unrest and $INDU below 5000---readers of this blog know that my prevous forecast was for $indu 7500 to hold. I now like silver mining stocks but am waiting for a short term buy signal soon.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Saturday, February 21, 2009


If you missed this you must view Rick Santelli's call for a Chicago Tea Party to stop the socialization of America.

Broad Market Continues Selloff, Gold over $1000


Thursday, February 19, 2009

New lows confirm Dow Theory Sell Signal

The broad markets new lows today confirm the long term trend for the financial markets is down.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

IBD signals Market in Correction

The $Indu came near to taking out its November lows. If or when that happens look for another down leg in this bear market. Gold and gold shares remain strong. Follow the fed reports on the velocity of money for a marker of when we turn from deflation to inflation. Tim Knight predicts S&P to drop to 650 in a "soon" timeframe. 79% probability of a down S&P tomorrow predicted by Palasades research. Carl Futia predicts gold to 1100.

Monday, February 16, 2009


Massive liquidation started this pm somewhere in Asia---ther could be a huge move to the downside tomorrow AM if the futures and overnight markets are correct. The US $ is up and gold is up--otherwise look out.

follow this link

Friday, February 6, 2009


CHARTS FOR $INDU, $TRAN AND $HUI ARE NOW BULLISH. IBD IN CONFIRMED RALLY. ALL THAT IS LACKING IS DOW THEORY CONFIRMATION. Strong buy signal for gold and major gold producers. "Gold is rising against all currencies" John Murphy says on stock I like ABX (+90 strong uptrend), AUY, RGLD,SLW,NXG. I suggest buying a one half position ---wait 6 months and buy second position.
Please take the time to follow the link below. It will take many years for the U.S. economy to revive itself--if it ever does.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009




Thursday, January 29, 2009

broad markets sell off

90% probability for down broad markets tomorrow. I look for anoter whipsaw for recent IBD buy signal---gold needs to hold $900 --gold stocks may get sucked down with broad market selloff.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Buy Signal $indu P&F CHART

IBD gives buy signal but confirmation from dow theory will come $Indu and $Tran close above their January Highs.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Buy Sgnal for gold and Major Gold Producers

The broad markets remain in a correction bear market mode except for NDX which has given a P&F buy signal. My readers will recall that for a buy signal for the broad markets I use the IBD signal which also must be confirmed by "Dow Theory"

Most of my readers have noticed the "Name Change" for this blog. The extreme market conditions and rapidly changing political and economic conditions of the past 2 years are the harshest financial environments of my life time. I have been involved in a study group led by my wife, Margaret in a book "The Divine Conspiracy". Margaret has been part of the "Centurian Program" led by the Chuck Colson ministries. A new world order or currency may well be the result of the currrent "Financial Conspiracy" we are now living thru. I have never been a "Gold Bug" but for the first time ever I am considering purchase of gold coins and a hand gun.

On a personal note I have been saddened by the CVA and coma sustained by my close friend Rex Russell M.D.--author of "WHAT THE BIBLE SAYS ABOUT HEALTHY LIVING"--During this past week I attended the funeral of my younger son's father in law Erwin Wood of Houston Texas and the funeral in Tulsa of a close college friend (I have known his wife for 62 years) Dennis Arnold who died of lung cancer. The deaths of close family and friends always causes me to reflect on "what matters most"--my deepest committment--my search for the simplicity that is found in Christ and the guileless candor of childhood--I am reminded to seek as the poet William Cowper exclaimed of God:
"Deep in unfathomable mines
of never ending skill,
He treasures up his bright designs,
and works his sovereign will."

I find in time of mourning and loss of family and friends my greatest comfort in accepting "His sovereign will" comes from old hymns of faith (La 3:23) and from the Old Testament Psalms: "My soul is weary with sorrow; strengthen me according to your word." Ps 119:28

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Sell Signal Continues for Broad Market and Gold Stocks

63% probability for down day NDX. I am "short" WFC.