Monday, September 24, 2007

The velocity of money is not a constant


Since 1970, most cuts by the Fed (1970, 1974, 1985, 1989, 2001) were followed for at least two years by massive declines in the inflation rate. There were, however, exceptions: 1980 (which was quickly taken back by Mr Volcker) and 1998 (which was also quickly taken back).

Which leaves us with the following question: Will the recent Fed cut prove to be right? Or will it be, like 1980 and 1998, a mistake quickly taken back?

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