Thursday, October 23, 2008

DID YOU PAY ATTENTION TO THESE MAJOR WARNING SIGNS?

Did you ignore this June 19 report?

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century

RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert 19 Jun 2008


Or missed this June 7 warning?

Morgan Stanley issues triple sell warning on equities

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:16AM BST 07 Jun 2007

Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'
Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.

Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.

"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002. "We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.

The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.

"If you look at all shares, the p/e ratio is at an all-time high of 20," he said.

The other two gauges measure fundamentals such as growth and inflation, as well as risk appetite. "Investors are taking far too much comfort from global liquidity. Markets always return to fundamental value, so people could be in for a rude awakening. This is the greater fool theory," he said. "The trigger may be rate rises by the Bank of Japan, or a widening of credit spreads. There are lots of little triggers."

Morgan Stanley predicted a "catastrophic event" in world currency markets during the coming months as occurred in 1992 due to opposing views between the Fed and the ECB about what to do about monetary policy and inflation and due to imbalances in the ECB itself.

Both RBS and MS are elitist insiders high in the food chain of Illuminist companies. They knew what was coming.

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