Saturday, August 11, 2007
Investor skepticism is understandable--Gold Buy Signal???
Many analysts refer to copper as Dr. Copper, because it diagnoses the health of the global economy. If the economy is booming a lot of copper gets used in plumbing, wiring, circuit boards and such, causing its price to rise. Measured against copper the Dow has plunged 76.5%.
Friday gold reversed and held support--I am looking for a tradeable rally next week. Spot gold resistance is $695 with support at $661. The million dollar question is will a further downdraft in the broad market sink gold stocks also??? A new gold stock on my watch list is GXL.V--I really like the profile and prospects for this company--it could be a 10 bagger.
Is the bond market telling us what we learned from 1987 bond yields? Or is "THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT".
Central banks around Asia joined efforts in the United States and Europe to stave off a credit crunch among banks yesterday, as widening fears over losses in the U.S. housing loan market prompted investors to sell assets and commercial banks to reel in credit lines. Fear is growing concerning market risk and the chance of major market selloff. This current crisis is a 8 on the financial Richter Scale if 9/11 was rated a 10.
The perceived risk of owning U.S. corporate bonds reached its highest level since 2003 this week, and uncertainty about subprime mortgage defaults could keep the market unsettled for some time.
Spreads, the extra yields that investors demand for the risk of holding investment-grade corporate bonds, have widened by 27 basis points since the end of June to about 124 basis points, according to Lehman Brothers data. Spreads had reached 127 basis points on Tuesday, the highest since June 2003, according to Lehman Brothers.
Corporate bonds weakened again on Friday as liquidity fears swept through the markets and major central banks injected additional cash into financial systems.
Uncertainty about whether subprime fallout and turmoil in the financial sector will begin spreading through the broader economy has made investors cautious about buying corporate bonds, even at much wider spreads, traders and analysts said.
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